Monday, November 07, 2005

Monday Night Game - Colts at Patriots

When people think about tonight's game, they keep looking at the Indy's record and talking about how they haven't really beaten anyone, yet. And it's true. Of the 7 teams they've beaten, the only one with a winning record is Jacksonville (a 10-3 win at home). Their opponents, up till now, are 19-38 for the season.

The Patriots, on the other hand, have beaten teams with a record of 18-14, and lost to teams with a record of 17-8. I don't like to see it, but the truth is the Patriots are no longer better than their opponents. They are not however, a bad team. What they are, is a competitor. They will beat the bad teams, but they're going to continue to split against the stronger teams.

The Colts have not shown that they are one of the stronger teams, though. Beating up on San Francisco (2-6), Houston (1-7), and Tennessee (2-7) is good for making your statistics look good. But did you know the Pats (362.9) have a higher yds/game than the Colts (353.7)?

Since both teams have a good offense, tonight's game will come down to the defense and penalties. Neither team has a defensive line-up to be proud of. My thoughts keep coming down to Richard Seymour. If he playes tonight, the Pats have a very good chance of winning. If not, it's going to be an uphill battle. With Bruschi back in the middle, and Richard up front forcing the offensive line back, the secondary can get back to doing what it's supposed to do.

The other issue is penalties. The Colts have the fewest penalties in the league with only 36 for 245 yards, while the Pats have 59 for 507. That's not a good number for coaches to look at. Penalties tend to be an indicator of when things have gone wrong, either in a player's head (offsides, delay of game, etc...) or on the field (a wr is about to run by you so you grab his jersey).

Here's something to think about. If the Pats win tonight, they will have a good chance at taking the bye week what with the weak schedule ahead. If the Colts get exposed, chances are with their schedule, they will make the playoffs, but I wouldn't favor them for the bye week.

Some more numbers to consider:
Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per rush on defense, good for 26th in the league.
No. 1 receiver Marvin Harrison is averaging only 1.7 yards after the catch – suggesting he’s either going down or stepping out of bounds as soon as possible – and Reggie Wayne is at 3.6.


NFL Adam said...

I still believe the Colts will fall short. Which, of course, kills me fantasy wise.

Mike said...

I'll take a fantasy loss any day if the pats win. Mind, I lost this week at fantasy already, because I played Priest Holmes who didn't play this week. But I didn't have a choice. I could either pick up a scrub, or take a chance on Holmes. So I took a chance.