Tuesday, August 22, 2006

How the Red Sox can get back in it.

With the Red Sox 6 1/2 games back and only 38 games left (Yankees have 39), I'm looking ahead today and seeing how the Red Sox can get back into the race. In other words, how many games do they need to win (and the Yankees have to win/lose)?

If the Red Sox win half of their remaining games (i.e. 19 games), the Yankees would have to lose 26 games of their remaining games (i.e. win 33% of their remaining games) for the Sox to get tied up. Here are the other possibilities:

Red Sox Wins
Ratio of wins (Red Sox)
Yankees Losses Ratio of Wins (Yankees)
19 50% 26 33%
23 60% 22 44%
27 70% 18 54%
30 80% 15 62%
34 90% 11 72%
38 100% 7

So, if the the Sox take 30 (80%) of their remaining games (a possibility, although I'm not very optimistic about that today) and the Yankees only take 62% (lose 14 of their remaining 39) of their remaining games, they can tie it back up.

I suppose that is possible, but the Sox would need to show more heart than they've shown so far this season.

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